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{{For|specific wars and other uses|Civil War (disambiguation)|List of civil wars}}
{{Redirect|Civil conflict|the college football game|Civil Conflict}}
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Civil wars since the end of World War II have lasted on average just over four years, a dramatic rise from the one-and-a-half-year average of the 1900–1944 period. While the rate of emergence of new civil wars has been relatively steady since the mid-19th century, the increasing length of those wars has resulted in increasing numbers of wars ongoing at any one time. For example, there were no more than five civil wars underway simultaneously in the first half of the 20th century while there were over 20 concurrent civil wars close to the end of the [[Cold War]]. Since 1945, civil wars have resulted in the deaths of over 25 million people, as well as the [[forced migration|forced displacement]] of millions more. Civil wars have further resulted in economic collapse; [[Somalia]], [[Burma]] (Myanmar), [[Uganda]] and [[Angola]] are examples of nations that were considered to have had promising futures before being engulfed in civil wars.{{sfn|Hironaka|2005|pp=1–2, 4–5}}
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[[James Fearon]],
The [[Geneva Conventions]] do not specifically define the term "civil war"; nevertheless, they do outline the responsibilities of parties in "armed conflict not of an international character". This includes civil wars; however, no specific definition of civil war is provided in the text of the Conventions.
Nevertheless, the [[International Committee of the Red Cross]] has sought to provide some clarification through its commentaries on the [[Geneva Conventions]], noting that the Conventions are "so general, so vague, that many of the delegations feared that it might be taken to cover any act committed by force of arms". Accordingly, the commentaries provide for different 'conditions' on which the application of the Geneva Convention would depend; the commentary, however, points out that these should not be interpreted as rigid conditions. The conditions listed by the [[ICRC]] in its commentary are as follows:<ref>Final Record of the [[Fourth Geneva Convention|Diplomatic Conference of Geneva of 1949]], (Volume II-B, p. 121)</ref><ref>See also the [[International Committee of the Red Cross]] [http://www.icrc.org/ihl.nsf/COM/375-590006?OpenDocument commentary] on Third 1949 Geneva Convention, Article III, Section "A. Cases of armed conflict" for the ICRC's reading of the definition and a listing of proposed alternative wording</ref>
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# That the Party in revolt against the de jure Government possesses an organized military force, an authority responsible for its acts, acting within a determinate territory and having the means of respecting and ensuring respect for the Convention.
# That the legal Government is obliged to have recourse to the regular military forces against insurgents organized as military and in possession of a part of the national territory.
#(a) That the de jure Government has recognized the insurgents as belligerents; or
(b) That it has claimed for itself the rights of a belligerent; or
(c) That it has accorded the insurgents recognition as belligerents for the purposes only of the present Convention; or
(d) That the dispute has been admitted to the agenda of the Security Council or the General Assembly of the United Nations as being a threat to international peace, a breach of the peace, or an act of aggression.
#(a) That the insurgents have an organization purporting to have the characteristics of a State.
(b) That the insurgent civil authority exercises de facto authority over the population within a determinate portion of the national territory.
(c) That the armed forces act under the direction of an organized authority and are prepared to observe the ordinary laws of war.
(d) That the insurgent civil authority agrees to be bound by the provisions of the Convention.
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A comprehensive study of civil war was carried out by a team from the [[World Bank]] in the early 21st century. The study framework, which came to be called the Collier–Hoeffler Model, examined 78 five-year increments when civil war occurred from 1960 to 1999, as well as 1,167 five-year increments of "no civil war" for comparison, and subjected the data set to [[regression analysis]] to see the effect of various factors. The factors that were shown to have a statistically significant effect on the chance that a civil war would occur in any given five-year period were:<ref name=cs17>Collier & Sambanis, Vol 1, p. 17</ref>
A high proportion of primary [[commodity|commodities]] in national exports significantly increases the risk of a conflict. A country at "peak danger", with commodities comprising 32% of [[gross domestic product]], has a 22% risk of falling into civil war in a given five-year period, while a country with no primary commodity exports has a 1% risk. When disaggregated, only [[petroleum]] and non-petroleum groupings showed different results: a country with relatively low levels of dependence on petroleum exports is at slightly less risk, while a high level of dependence on oil as an export results in slightly more risk of a civil war than national dependence on another primary commodity. The authors of the study interpreted this as being the result of the ease by which primary commodities may be extorted or captured compared to other forms of wealth; for example, it is easy to capture and control the output of a gold mine or oil field compared to a sector of garment manufacturing or hospitality services.<ref name=cs16>Collier & Sambanis, Vol 1, p. 16</ref>
A second source of finance is national [[diaspora]]s, which can fund rebellions and insurgencies from abroad. The study found that statistically switching the size of a country's diaspora from the smallest found in the study to the largest resulted in a sixfold increase in the chance of a civil war.<ref name=cs16/>
Higher male secondary school enrollment, [[per capita income]] and economic growth rate all had significant effects on reducing the chance of civil war. Specifically, a male secondary school enrollment 10% above the average reduced the chance of a conflict by about 3%, while a growth rate 1% higher than the study average resulted in a decline in the chance of a civil war of about 1%. The study interpreted these three factors as proxies for earnings forgone by rebellion, and therefore that lower forgone earnings encourage rebellion.<ref name=cs16/> Phrased another way: young males (who make up the vast majority of combatants in civil wars) are less likely to join a rebellion if they are getting an education or have a comfortable salary, and can reasonably assume that they will prosper in the future.<ref>Henrik Urdal – [https://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/expertpapers/Urdal_Expert%20Paper.pdf A CLASH OF GENERATIONS? YOUTH BULGES AND POLITICAL VIOLENCE] – ''un.org.'' Retrieved 28 December 2012.</ref>
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